A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
